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Until the Last Ukrainian
Ukraine just lost another 740 soldiers on the front lines yesterday. As usually, after more than a month of “counteroffensive”, without gain. It’s all for nothing – except a bloody show for NATO. The Ukrainian forces are now so weak that their pressure forward has nearly stopped everywhere on the long front. In Pryvilia in Zaporizhzhia region, the Ukrainians even retreated from a once feebly taken village because a whole brigade was annihilated. The Ukrainians now attack on foot without artillery support, through minefields against Russian defense positions and against Russian armor under heavy artillery and air attacks. Why? Because Russia has destroyed so many Ukrainian tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery, that Ukrainians have practically nothing but their boots and Kalashnikovs left. Around Vremivka, the Ukrainians are taking an ever longer “pause”. Attacks around Artemovsk (Bakhmut) have lost momentum too.
Russia is now destroying the third army Ukraine has built. The first one was destroyed in the first half of 2022. The second one was destroyed in Ukraine’s offensives in Kharkov and Kherson regions in Autumn 2022. Now the third Ukrainian army is being obliterated, and Ukraine has started a “total mobilization” to scrape together the last males who can still walk.
NATO is running out of stuff to give Ukraine. Biden admits that the dispatch of 155 mm artillery cluster shells is only a desperate second “solution” because the US and NATO are out of ordinary 155 mm artillery ammunition to send. The US will send another 30 Stryker armored vehicles, that is not more that Ukraine loses on any given day. There will come F16s for Ukraine, but it won’t change a thing.
There Will be No Ceasefire
The “Putin is weak” narrative of illusional collapse of Russia has replaced the horrible reality for NATO in the heads of the NATO leaders.
Send more Ukrainian cannon fodder to their certain death, and through magic, perhaps Russia will crumble by itself.
“This is the weakest Putin has been since taking power,” said Ian Bremmer.
“The president has been clear that we are going to support Ukraine for as long as it takes and provide them an exceptional quantity of arms and capabilities,” said national security adviser Jake Sullivan
… right now the priority is to hold the line on Ukraine for as long as possible,” said Rachel Rizzo, a fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center
See this.
NATO and Kiev will continue until Ukraine is no more.
This will define the postwar European order.
NATO Cannot Defend Lithuania
NATO is not capable of defending Lithuania. See this.
They also can’t defend Finland.
Even a Polish led NATO expedition force into Ukraine will be obliterated by Russia.
New NATO members are a stretch of obligations far beyond the means of NATO. Because NATO is simply not capable of fighting a large scale war in Europe. Just ask Col. Douglas Macgregor.
That will become horribly evident to everybody, once what remains of Ukraine is destroyed.
What Then?
After the war in Ukraine, Russia will be in a position to politely ask Finland and the Baltic countries to leave NATO. Or else …
Kaliningrad will become a hub – both for military, trade, and finance. Want bank secrecy? Want protection of your wealth? Forget Switzerland. Go to Kaliningrad.
This will completely change the dynamics in the Baltic Sea and all of Northern Europe.
Through control of all of Ukraine, incl. the western part, Russia will build a Eurasian Landbridge from Russia and China to Hungary and Serbia. This will connect to mega transport routes “Between Three Seas” already being built in eastern Europe by NATO-EU-US in the “Visegrad countries”. The existing part of the Eurasian Landbridge through Belarus and Poland will get a strong alternative. Slovakia may decide to grasp these opportunities too.
Hungary and Serbia will experience enormous economic and political advantages as a center of east-west business and security. China and Germany are already investing big in Hungary, and it will be much bigger. That will completely change the dynamics in Central Europe and the Balkans.
As a consequence of both the above, Russian influence both north and south of Poland, Poland will become much more isolated and vulnerable. Germany on its hand, will likely seek to reestablish the advantages of Russian and Chinese business.
France may suddenly “rediscover” strategic autonomy.
Britain? Are they Europe? They might then find that they are not.
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Karsten Riise is a Master of Science (Econ) from Copenhagen Business School and has a university degree in Spanish Culture and Languages from Copenhagen University. He is the former Senior Vice President Chief Financial Officer (CFO) of Mercedes-Benz in Denmark and Sweden.
He is a regular contributor to Global Research.
Featured image: Europe – Karsten Riise and Christian Lue, Unsplash CC0
