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Global Research Fundraising: Stop the Pentagon’s Ides of March
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The Ukrainian conflict would have meant a return to the Cold War between Russia and the US and a return to the Doctrine of Containment, the foundations of which were laid out by George F. Kennan in his essay “The Sources of Soviet Behavior” published in the journal Foreign Affairs in 1947 and whose main ideas are summarized in the quote
“Soviet power is impervious to the logic of reason but very sensitive to the logic of force”.
This would include the entry of Finland and Sweden into NATO military structures and the increase of military forces with four new battalions deployed on the European border with Russia and the Russian response to the installation of missiles in Belarus Iskander-M equipped with multi-purpose warheads as well as S-40 anti-aircraft missiles following the dynamics of the Cold War (action-reaction).
We are also witnessing the fifth phase of the deployment of the anti-missile shield in Europe (Euro DAM) which began in May 2016 when the Aegis Ashore anti-ballistic defence system entered into service at the Deveselu base (Romania), just 600 km from the Crimean peninsula. For its part, Russia would have installed in Kaliningrad the missiles Iskander M equipped with multipurpose warheads as well as anti-aircraft missiles S-400 with what in the words of the political scientist Vladimir Abrámov “the province of Kaliningrad will again play the role of pistol in the temple of Europe as two decades ago” and in the event of closing NATO the exit of the Soviet enclave of Kaliningrad to the Baltic Sea, could be reissued the Kennedy-Khrushchev Missile Crisis (October, 1962) which would have as its epicenter Kaliningrad.
Is the Signing of Peace in the Ukrainian Dispute Close?
With regard to the United States, in the Democratic field, the signs of Biden’s senility, the fentanyl pandemic and high inflation would have sunk the popularity of the Democratic leader, which could facilitate the triumphant return of Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential elections by clearing his way to the White House after the latest decisions of the Supreme Cour. Consequently, a republican victory in 2024 would represent the decline of the Atlantist strategy of Biden and Soros committed to defend Putin from power, the signing of a peace agreement in Ukraine and the return to the Doctrine of Peaceful Coexistence with Russia.
Thus, after Trump’s victory we could see the signing of a Peace Agreement that establishes that Ukraine will not enter NATO and that the Ukrainian dispute is outlined with the division of Ukraine into two halves, leaving the East of the country, including Crimea, the Donbas, Zaporizhia and Kherson under Russian orbit.
Meanwhile, the Center and West of present-day Ukraine will sail under the tutelage of Poland, with which Putin will achieve total control of the Sea of Azov and Ukraine would ensure its exit to the Black Sea, while the imaginary line linking Kharkov, Zaporiyia, Bajmut and Rubizhne will become the new Berlin Wall of the Cold War 2.0.
This agreement will seek to be torpedoed by Zelensky, who will do his utmost to involve NATO in the Ukrainian conflict, so that Mr Zelensky would already be a liability for the US, which should be removed immediately, not being ruled out that he should be accused of corruption and forced into exile in the US.
Are Poland and Romania Seeking to Annex Part of Ukraine?
Poland seeks to become a local player in the Eastern European hornet’s nest and extend its influence to the Ukrainian area by claiming its right to incorporate the Ukrainian region of Lviv on the Polish map, which was occupied by Poland from 1918 to 1939.Thus, according to the director of the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) of Russia, Sergey Naryshkin in statements to RIA Novosti “the leaders of Poland intend to hold referendums in western Ukraine to achieve the annexation of the territories of Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk and most of the oblasts of Ternopil in Ukraine”.
To achieve this, Poland has suspended the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe implying that Poland “would no longer be obliged to comply with NATO provisions on limiting the size of armed forces and their deployment” and would therefore be free to occupy the Ukrainian region of Lviv and subsequently incorporate it into Poland following the signing of the future Peace Treaty between Ukraine and Russia.
Claudiu Tarziu, president of the National Board of Directors of the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), in a speech in the Romanian city of Iasi, listed the territories that Romania should annex: the Northern Bukovina region, the Bessarabia region, the territory of Hertsa, included in the Ukrainian region of Chernovtsi, bordering with Romania, and the Ukrainian region of Transcarpathia, with which the Ukrainian cartography under control of Kiev wanted to reduced notably.
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Germán Gorraiz López is a political analyst. He is a regular contributor to Global Research.
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