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A crisis is “a conjuncture of changes in any aspect of an organized but unstable reality, subject to evolution.” The word crisis is etymologically related to the Greek verb krínein, which originally meant “decide, separate, judge” and later evolved into “select or choose” and always implies a chaos of change.
By chaos we understand something unpredictable and that escapes the myopic vision that only our eyes can outline in the face of events that escape the known parameters since our mind is capable of sequencing only fragments of the total sequence of the immense genome of chaos.
Likewise, a crisis always implies a break in the linear course of events that results in a series of alternatives between which one must choose and to get out of said labyrinth, it is necessary to use the ability to differentiate and think critically following the call “Occam’s razor” or law of parsimony.
This law is a philosophical principle enunciated by the scholar William of Occam, which is translated into the following axiom: “Given two theories on equal terms about the same phenomenon, the simpler one has a better chance of being correct” and what they would be a paradigm for Charles Darwin’s theory of the evolution of species; Isaac Newton’s law of universal gravitation or the law of supply and demand.
However, given the teleonomic scenario in which we find ourselves, marked by an extreme dose of volatility and which will especially affect complex systems such as Meteorology, Demography, Epidemic Detection and Prevention, Migratory Flows, the Stock Market and the New Geopolitical World Order, the human capacity to differentiate and think critically is seriously limited.
Thus, we inevitably resort to the term “butterfly effect” to try to explain the dizzying conjunction of centripetal and centrifugal forces that will end up configuring the unconnected puzzle of ordered chaos that is developing.
The aforementioned “butterfly effect” transferred to complex systems such as Demoscopy would have As a side effect, the impossibility of detecting an immediate future in advance since the quantum models they use would only be simulations based on previous models, so the inclusion of just one incorrect variable or the sudden appearance of an unforeseen variable causes the margin to increase.
The error of these models is amplified in each simulated unit of time until it even exceeds the stratospheric limit of one hundred percent.
Brexit, the COVID pandemic and the emergence of Cold War 2.0 thus marked the end of the “teleological scenario” in which the purpose of creative processes were planned by finite models that could intermodel or simulate various alternative futures and in which that priority was given to intention, purpose and foresight and its replacement by the “teleonomic scenario”.
This scenario will be marked by an extreme dose of volatility, so the aforementioned principle of Occam’s razor seems useless given the complexity of the scenarios that lie ahead and we will have to resort to the advice attributed to the poverello d’assisi:
“Start by doing what is necessary, then what is possible and suddenly, you will be doing the impossible.”
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Germán Gorraiz López is a political analyst. He is a regular contributor to Global Research.
