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G7 Running on Empty
The G7 is in a limbo.
Right now, the G7 is all about US asserting control of the other six to follow a full anti-China line. The rest of the World won’t care about G7 until the US can start a big move to “unify the world” against China.
The US got the rest of G7 behind it in Ukraine – the use of Russia as boogeyman achieved that. France, Germany, UK, and Brussels all wanted not only Russia kicked out of Ukraine, they wanted Russia permanently frayed to a degree that even Finland could turn over Russia.
They needed the US for that. Trump wouldn’t take that agenda, but Biden always wanted it. So France, Germany forgot their first month of hesitation about Biden and the US after Trump and came under Biden’s thumb.
Now they are all losing in Ukraine. But unless Germany changes position and starts dealing with Russia (which could later happen), they will continue to seek US “protection”.
The Ukraine gamble is lost. What happens next in Ukraine is purely a US effort in damage control. Try to stop Russian gains with a ceasefire (to later restart the war). Work to keep the US’ European allies together, especially Germany.
It’s About China!
The crucial point for the US is China. France and Germany desperately want to trade with China. But for the US, China was always the real issue. Destroying Russia was just seen as the easiest way for the US to take down China “from behind”. That is obviously no longer possible.
The US is right now losing power to Russia in Ukraine and to China on Taiwan. China’s military can beat the US around Taiwan. China has more purchase power than the US. BRICS has more purchase power than G7. Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and 10 other countries have applied to join BRICS. The world is de-dollarizing. China backed by Russia is the catalyst for a new Middle East, not the US. The US and the G7 are becoming more and more weak. Isolated.
US tech power in AI, chips, Quantum Computing, and Industrialization of Space will be immense. And it is coming now, but there are still two years until it will really be impactful. Two years is a very short time, especially for technologies where China is lagging up to over a decade behind. But for restless, impatient Neocons who are right now losing in Ukraine, two years feel like eternity. They want action against China now.
The US needs something to tie the G7 and the World together behind it again and go against China. The “Summit for Democracy” was a US humiliation. The US needs a stronger medicine.
Making China an outcast is needed for the US to sanction China. A Chinese take-over of Taiwan will be precisely that event, which the US needs to denounce China as a global pariah. China taking Taiwan will serve as the equivalent of how Russia’s takeover of Crimea was needed to decry Russia as a pariah and outcast.
Chinese “Aggression” Needed
The solution is simple. Declare Taiwan independent, and Beijing will be forced to react with a physical takeover of Taiwan. Place some targets in Taipei to make sure that Beijing needs to bomb a big city. Damage happens to civilians on Taiwan to present victims of China.
The US, not China, decides the timetable!
This will be what the US needs to press France and Germany to bear the pain of decoupling from China. This is what the US needs as excuse to coerce countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America to cut ties with Beijing. That will be the excuse needed in the White House for either pressing Saudi Arabia to disengage with China, or stage a coup to replace the Saudi leader with one who will. It will also be the tool the US needs to draw India further to its side and reduce ties with Moscow and Beijing.
US War and Propaganda
Chinese “aggression” will be the tool to destroy BRICS and the Global South. It can be used to justify US intervention against Chinese shipping in contravention of international law. And it will be the tool for the US to say: “Let’s cut out China and build a better world without China!” – and say “Join us, the USA, the leader of the World – forget about China, forget BRI, build your industry and economies together with us, the USA.”
It will also be the tool needed as justification for violent US covert military actions against China. Bomb China’s undersea cables and installations. Blame it on a non-existent Chinese “resistance movement”, even if it happened 80 meters below the waves.
Declaring China an “aggressor”, a danger, and a dictatorship will be very handy when the technologies of especially AI and Quantum Computing in just around two years will make US aggression far more powerful. Then the US can uninhibited use these tools to destroy China utterly. Next, Industrialization of Space will enable total US militarization of Space as well.
Multi-front Conflict
Several fronts will be opened against China. Pressure of sanctions. Closing off China’s exports. Choking off China’s supplies of raw materials (other than what Russia can deliver). Steal China’s immense dollar reserves. Slow down China’s growth and create a deep economic depression and crisis in China instead. Create social suffering and dissatisfaction. Use dissatisfaction to stir up “popular demands for democracy”. Create groups inside China on newly taken Taiwan, in Hong Kong, Tibet, and Xinjiang. Use US superiority in submarine warfare to make life miserable for Chinese in their close waters. Do sabotage and deny it.
Then in two years, break Chinese codes with Quantum Computing, hack into and destroy China’s electronic infrastructure. With a huge crisis in China, even a major Western crisis from decoupling from China may look smaller in comparison. With AI, enormous productivity gains will happen, which will be used to speed up Western growth again and keep the Western population in check. Then make promises of participation in AI-progress (and suppression) to the rest of the World in order to get the backing of more Global South countries. Sanction or régime change countries which don’t comply.
With new US technologies, sanctions, coercion, media lies, bribes, manipulation, and a Space race unpayable for China, the US has a great chance to rule the World.
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Karsten Riise is a Master of Science (Econ) from Copenhagen Business School and has a university degree in Spanish Culture and Languages from Copenhagen University. He is the former Senior Vice President Chief Financial Officer (CFO) of Mercedes-Benz in Denmark and Sweden.
He is a regular contributor to Global Research.
Featured image is from the author
