The Democratic Nomination, Clinton versus Obama: It’s a Tossup


The latest tracking surveys from Rasmussen and Zogby in Super Tuesday states suggest that the race for the Democratic nomination is a tossup.

While Barack Obama has upward momentum, and Hillary Clinton’s once commanding lead across the nation has shrunken dramatically – but, she still clings to her leads in several states – from Massachusetts and New York to California.

Obama is gaining, but Clinton still retains her rapidly dwindling leads in:  New York; New Jersey; Tennessee; Alabama and Missouri.  Clinton’s advantages in California and Massachusetts have already shriveled to near parity with Obama’s surge.  

Oddly, there are no credible figures for the Democratic race for Ilinois, Obama’s home state.  Obama leads in Georgia and Connecticutt, as well as (presumably) Illinois.

With the complicated (and oligarchical) system for awarding delegates in several major states – notably California – it now appears certain that the outcome of Super Tuesday will not be decisive for the Democrats.  

The contest for the nomination will linger throughout February and March with the real possibility of a brokered convention where the Super Delegates will come into play next August in Denver.  Clinton is already making overt moves to seat the outlaw delegations from both Florida and Michigan where she holds the advantage.  Bureaucratic maneuvering in Denver could play the decisive role in deciding the outcome unless one of the candidates develops a decisive lead after Super Tuesday.

On the Republican side, John McCain has solidified a massive lead with Mitt Romney trailing far behind.  McCain is now the presumptive Republican nominee. 

It is time to dust off McCain’s appearances on Meet the Press where Tim Russert routinely confronts him with a withering concatenation of flip-flops, mis-statements and humiliating gaffes.

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Articles by: Michael Carmichael

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