Studies on COVID-19 Lethality






The following tables provide links to important medical/health studies which are indicated in the Right column.

To access the original article at click here

1) Covid-19 infection fatality rates (IFR) based on antibody studies


Population-based antibody seroprevalence studies.

Country Published Population IFR (%) Source
Global May 19 Most countries
Three hotspots
Germany May 4 Heinsberg Cluster <0.36¹ Study
Iran May 1 Guilan province <0.12 Study
USA April 30 Santa Clara County 0.17 Study
Denmark April 28 Blood donors (<70y) 0.08 Study
USA April 24 Miami-Dade County 0.18 Report
USA April 21 Los Angeles County <0.20 Study


1) The adjusted IFR is 0.278% (see page 9 of study). Note: Some of these studies are preprints.

2) Covid-19 infection fatality rates based on controlled PCR studies

Controlled PCR studies in population subgroups.

Country Date Population IFR (%) Source
France May 21 Health workers 0.05 Study
USA May 10 MLB employees 0.00 Report
France May 10 Aircraft carrier 0.00 Report
USA May 10 Aircraft carrier 0.09 Report
USA May 1 Tennessee prison 0.00 Report
Italy² April 28 Health workers 0.30 Study
USA April 17 Boston homeless 0.00 Report
USA April 17 Boston blood donors 0.00 Report
Ship April 17 Diamond Princess 0.13¹ Study
Greece April 16 Repatriations 0.00 Study
USA April 13 NYC pregnant women 0.00 Study


1) Age-adjusted IFR based on US population.

2) Deaths in Italian health care workers by age group (ISS, May 20)

3) Covid-19 infection fatality rates based on models

Covid-19 IFR based on epidemiological models or predictions. These values are often somewhat higher than the actual values based on serological antibody studies (see above).

Country Published Population IFR (%) Source
USA May 20 CDC estimate 0.26¹ Study
France May 13 France 0.70 Study
Switzerland May 11 Switzerland 0.40 Study
UK May 7 UK 0.08² Study
France May 7 France 0.80³ Study
Global May 5 Global 0.17 Study
India May 3 India 0.41 Study
April 20 Lombardia
New York City
China March 30 Mainland China 0.66 Study
China March 13 Wuhan city 0.12 Study
China March 9 Mainland China 0.50 Study


1) 0.4% symptomatic CFR and 35% asymptomatic cases; 2) Based on 29% prevalence and 50,000 deaths; 3) The IFR is 0.50 excluding nursing homes.

French model: IFR (x100) per age group (Study)

4) Additional antibody and PCR studies

These studies determine the actual prevalence of recent or current Covid-19 infections in a population or region. In most cases, they find that Covid-19 is much more widespread than previously assumed, with most people showing no or only mild symptoms.

Country Published Population Prev. Factor Source
USA May 15 Boston 12.5% 8x Report
Czech Rep. May 15 South Bohemia 5% 10x Report
Spain May 13 Spain
10x Study
UK May 8 UK 29% 200x Study
Switzerland May 6 Geneva 9.7% 10x Study
Global May 5 < 65 years old Study
Japan May 5 Kobe City 2.7% 396x Study
USA May 2 New York State
New York City
Spain May 2 Health workers 11.2% Study
Netherlands April 29 Blood donors 2.7% Study
France April 23 Northern France 3% Study
USA April 19 Chelsea MA 32% 16x Report
Iceland April 14 Iceland (PCR) 0.8% Study


5) Median age of Covid-19 deaths per country

Half of all deaths were below, half were above the median age.

Country Median age
Austria 80+ years EMS
England 80+ years NHS
France 84 years SPF
Germany 82 years RKI
Italy 81 years ISS
Spain ~82 years MDS
Sweden 86 years FOHM
Switzerland 84 years BAG
USA ~80 years CDC
Example: Death rate by age group in Massachusetts (Source)

7) Hospitalization rate

Initial estimates based on Chinese data assumed a very high 20% hospitalization rate, which led to the strategy of ‘flattening the curve’ to avoid overburdening hospitals. However, population-based antibody studies (see above) have since shown that actual hospitalization rates are close to 1%, which is within the range of hospitalization rates for influenza (1 to 2%).

The US CDC found that Covid-19 hospitalization rates for people aged 65 and over are “within ranges of influenza hospitalization rates”, with rates slightly higher for people aged 18 to 64 and “much lower” (compared to influenza) for people under 18.

In local hotspots like New York City, the overall hospitalization rate based on antibody studies is about 2.5% (19.9% or 1.7 million people with antibodies and 43,000 hospitalizations by May 2).

The much lower than expected hospitalization rate may explain why most Covid-19 ‘field hospitals’ even in hard-hit countries like the US, the UK and China remained largely empty.


8) Percentage of Covid-19 deaths in care homes per country

In many countries, deaths in care homes account for 30 to 60% of all additional deaths. In Canadaand some US states, care homes account for up to 80% of all “Covid19-related” deaths.

Source: Mortality associated with COVID-19 outbreaks in care homes (LTC Covid, May 3, 2020)

Source: The Covid-19 Nursing Home Crisis by The Numbers (Freopp, May 12, 2020)

9) Development of the epidemic

Even in countries without a lockdown, the epidemic reached its peak within a few weeks of the outbreak. However, many media showed cumulative deaths per day of report (left) instead of dailydeaths per day of death (right), falsely implying an ever escalating situation.

Cumulative deaths per day of report vs. daily deaths per day of death. (OWD/FOHM; April 24)

See also

Main article: Facts on Covid-19

Cumulative deaths per day of report vs. daily deaths per day of death. (OWD/FOHM; April 24)


Note to readers: please click the share buttons above or below. Forward this article to your email lists. Crosspost on your blog site, internet forums. etc.

Disclaimer: The contents of this article are of sole responsibility of the author(s). The Centre for Research on Globalization will not be responsible for any inaccurate or incorrect statement in this article. The Centre of Research on Globalization grants permission to cross-post Global Research articles on community internet sites as long the source and copyright are acknowledged together with a hyperlink to the original Global Research article. For publication of Global Research articles in print or other forms including commercial internet sites, contact: [email protected] contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available to our readers under the provisions of "fair use" in an effort to advance a better understanding of political, economic and social issues. The material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving it for research and educational purposes. If you wish to use copyrighted material for purposes other than "fair use" you must request permission from the copyright owner.

For media inquiries: [email protected]