A diplomat spat has developed between Berlin and Warsaw after the Germany Defense Minister said that her country should support the “democratic resistance of the young generation” in Poland.
This scandalous remark from Germany’s top military official immediately led to a strong rebuke from all levels of the Polish government, which rightly interpreted her statement as an implied threat to aid the Soros-linked Color Revolutionaries in their quest to carry out a regime change in the Central European country. As an overly simplified backgrounder, the ruling Law & Justice conservative party has been working to cleanse Poland’s permanent bureaucracy, or “deep state”, of the holdovers that their Civil Platform liberal predecessors had hurriedly stacked into government in a last-ditch attempt to derail their opponents’ legislative agenda until the next election.
This is very similar to what the Democrats have been doing against Trump, but it’s just that PiS, which is the Polish abbreviation that the Law & Justice party is popularly known by, has been comparatively more successful than their allied American counterpart, hence why there’s been a proportionate increase in foreign support to the Color Revolution movement in response.
Germany hates PiS because party leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski’s ideology of “EuroRealism” contrasts with Merkel’s “EuroLiberalism” in every way, from dealing with the migrant crisis to the future organization of the EU as a whole. PiS is even being sued by Brussels because of its refusal to accept the forcible relocation of even a single Muslim migrant, and its ambitious “Three Seas Initiative” aims to consolidate a new power bloc in Central and Eastern Europe in order to oppose Germany’s post-Brexit centralization initiative for the EU in favor of a more hands-off and reformed approach that respects the national sovereignty of the bloc’s members. It’s long been suspected that Berlin was backing the anti-government movement in Poland, and the country’s media has reported on this for nearly two years already, but the German Defense Minister’s sloppy statement on TV seemed to present the strongest confirmation yet that this is indeed truly the case.
This diplomatic spat will probably soon die down, but the damage that it wrought to bilateral relations won’t likely go away so long as PiS continues to govern Poland, which might be for the foreseeable future seeing as how they secured the country’s largest-ever post-communist electoral victory in 2015. Warsaw is now more motivated than ever before to continue strengthening its relations with its “Three Seas” partners, particularly Hungary but potentially even Austria under the coming premiership of Sebastian Kurz. In addition, PiS stands validated in the eyes of the Polish people for having apparently been right all along about German interference in their country’s domestic political affairs, which will embolden its supporters and might even convince some of its less-radical detractors to reconsider their positions.
This controversial episode is also very curious because it came at the same time that Poland ended its precautionary Flexible Credit Line with the IMF and Reuters launched an infowar attack against the country by provocatively suggesting that Poland’s job boom was inadvertently stoking inflation, which makes one wonder whether the Defense Minister’s veiled threat was timed as a “dog whistle” to coincide with a new asymmetrical regime change offensive against Warsaw.
Andrew Korybko is an American Moscow-based political analyst specializing in the relationship between the US strategy in Afro-Eurasia, China’s One Belt One Road global vision of New Silk Road connectivity, and Hybrid Warfare.
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