Final Election Projections: Clinton 323 EV, Trump 215 EV, 51 Democratic Senate seats, GOP House

In-depth Report:

(updated with 6:06am data for Presidential and Senate; also added confidence intervals)

Here are my best estimates. These are the final snapshots. The Presidential estimates are based on the current snapshot except for the most probable single outcome map. There, for North Carolina, variance minimization was done to give a more stable snapshot; a longer baseline of 8 polls gives Clinton +1.0 ± 1.0%.

The Presidential and House races are a near-replica of 2012. Four Senate races are within one percentage point. Partisans in Indiana, Missouri, New Hampshire, and North Carolina may want to lawyer up for possible recount battles.

Tomorrow: I’ll put out a brief Geek’s Guide to the Election. Also, live blogging starting around 8:00 pm.

President: Hillary Clinton (D).

Most probable single outcome (shown on map below): Clinton 323 EV, Trump 215 EV.

Median: Clinton 307 EV, Trump 231 EV. Meta-Margin: 2.2%. One-sigma range: Clinton 281-326 EV.

Mode (see histogram at right): Clinton 308 EV, Trump 230 EV.

National popular vote: Clinton +4.0 ± 0.6%.


In this case, variance minimization was used to identify longer time windows with lower variance. This gives a more stable snapshot.

Mode (shown in table below): 51 Democratic/Independent seats, 49 Republican seats; most likely single outcome in the table below.

Median: 50 Democratic/Independent seats, 50 Republican seats. (average=50.4; 1-sigma range 49 to 51)


Generic Congressional ballot: Democratic +1%, about the same as 2012.

Cook Political Report-based expectation: 239 R, 196 D, an 8-seat gain for Democrats.

Articles by: Sam Wang

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