US Election: Analysis of Latest Zogby Polls

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John Zogby tells it like it really is in his column, “What if it’s not close after all?” for Forbes. 

The closeness of the election is more apparent than real as Zogby demonstrates in his column.  The election will likely result in a close popular vote, but with Obama winning by a substantial margin in the Electoral College.  Zogby does not make predictions.  By Zogby’s calculations and appraisals of the latest reliable polling, Obama will receive over 300 electoral votes more than enough for his re-election.

Click on the links below for the clearest analysis of the closing formation of this scintillating election cycle.

Michael Carmichael
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** 5 News Releases – Please Scroll Down**

November 4, 2012

NewsmaxZogby U.S. Nationwide Tracking Poll
Tied Again and Again –
Obama 47%-Romney 47%

Pollster John Zogby: “To readers this may seem like watching paint dry. It is. While the lead may change here and there, the polling is clear: The American people are tied. The real question (and vote) will be on November 7 — will we agree to disagree? Will one side give? Will one side concede that the election is the will of the public? Democracy relies on that. Meanwhile, Romney leads among those who have already voted and the two candidates are very close among voters who say they will “definitely” and are “very likely” to vote. Romney now leads among independents (49% Romney, 37% Obama) but 13% are still undecided — and independents, as always, remain volatile. Or are they “decided” about not voting for either? Romney leads 58%-37% among whites, while Obama is solid among Hispanics (69%-23%) and African Americans (91%-7%). Obama has grown his lead among the Creative Class by 19 points (57%-38%), a lead that is growing daily. But Romney has made gains among NASCAR fans and Weekly Wal-Mart Shoppers — both vital to his success. After a week of “presidential leadership” following Sandy, Obama is still not locking this up.”

Full News Release available at – http://www.jzanalytics.com/

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November 4, 2012

Special forbes.com post…
What If It’s Not Close After All?

I do not make predictions and, to quote the Governor of Texas, “I’m not a bettin’ man.” A real pollster has the humility to admit that real balls are made of human flesh – not of crystal, brass, or even silver. But I do look at trends and try to see the direction of things. The presidential race is indeed too close to call and likely to stay that way-at least in the nationwide popular vote. And the battleground states are mainly too close to call, as well. So what if the nationwide vote stays a 1 pointer and a candidate wins all (or most) of the battleground states by slim margins? I suggested in one of my posts last week that a close election could actually end up in the courts in several states. Not a pretty picture at all – especially with the looming fiscal cliff.

But what if one of the candidates wins by a point or two in all the states too close to call right now? Let’s review the situation…

Full Blog Post available at – http://www.forbes.com/sites/johnzogby/2012/11/04/what-if-its-not-close-after-all/

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NewsmaxZogby Florida Tracking Poll
Oh That Florida: Romney Now With 49% to Obama’s 47%;
Nelson Leads Senate Race by 14 Points

Pollster John Zogby: “Florida again. Governor Romney is polling 49% and that is good news for him as he leads the President by 2 points. Romney is back in the lead among independents and also leads by 6 points in the I-4 Corridor. He has pulled even with Florida’s Creative Class and is at 61% among whites. His lead among Florida’s NASCAR fans (54%-43%) and investor class (58%-40%) is sufficient for now. But can he sustain it for 2 more days?”

Full News Release available at – http://www.jzanalytics.com/
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NewsmaxZogby Ohio Tracking Poll
Obama Builds Lead in Ohio: Obama 50%- Romney 42%;
Brown Holds Lead in Senate Race

Pollster John Zogby: “I think we can color Ohio “peacock blue”. Given the volatility of this election, hold on to your “navy blue” crayon for now. But Ohio is clearly trending toward Obama. Pure speculation by me but this could be the reason why the Romney campaign has been so focused on Pennsylvania: it could be that with a tighter race there than expected and perhaps a lighter turnout in Philadelphia, that he feels he has a better chance in the Commonwealth than in the Buckeye State. Obama leads by 13 points among independents.”

Full News Release available at – http://www.jzanalytics.com/

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NewsmaxZogby Virginia Tracking Poll
Obama Up 6 in Virginia: Obama 50%-Romney 44%;
Kaine Up by 8 Over Allen

Pollster John Zogby: “Obama now has a 51% approval rating in Virginia — including 53% among independents. His re-elect is also the best I have seen — 48% feel he deserves re-election, while 44% say it is time for someone new. In the horse race, Obama leads 49% to 40% among independents and is ahead among both men and women. Similar to our nationwide poll, he has expanded his margin among the Creative Class to 18 points — 58% to 40%. He is also polling 38% among evangelicals to Romney’s 55%. In the multi-candidate race, Obama expands his lead to 8 points, 50% to 42%. Two days to go and the incumbent has hit 50%. Romney has some making up to do.”

Full News Release available at – http://www.jzanalytics.com/

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Looking for a quote or analysis of the poll results?
Contact Independent Pollster John Zogby
[email protected]

Articles by: John Zogby

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